Written by David Dodge  

The final NAR numbers just dropped, and they’re ugly: 87% of active agents closed less gross commission in 2025 than they did in 2024 — even though 30-year fixed rates spent the last ten weeks under 6.2%.

I coach full-time. My private client roster and small-group members finished the year up an average of 41% in GCI and took more listings in the last 90 days than most agents took all year. The gap between the top 10–15% and everyone else has never been wider.

This wasn’t a “market” problem. It was a skill, systems, positioning, and willingness problem.

Below are the nine most expensive lessons 2025 beat into us — with the exact moves my clients made (often 60–120 days ahead of the industry) to come out on top.

Ignore even one of these, and 2026 is going to hurt worse than this year did.

Lesson 1 – Lower rates don’t fix a broken business

Everyone sat on their hands waiting for the Fed to “save” real estate. Rates finally cracked below 6% in mid-October, and the national listing inventory still dropped 11% year-over-year in November (HousingWire, Nov 18 2025).

Why? Sellers who bought or refinanced at 2.7–3.5% refuse to move and “lose” their low payments, even if they can buy their next house for less. The lock-in effect is still crushing supply.

The agents who crushed it didn’t wait. My private clients launched their “Rate-Drop Listing Attraction Campaign” the first week of August — three full-color mailers + lo-fi video text sequence + retargeting ads — to their entire database and farm.

One agent in Charlotte booked 11 listings in September alone from that single campaign. Another in Phoenix closed $4.8 M in new listings before Thanksgiving. Lower rates only help agents who already have seller conversations in motion. If you’re starting your seller marketing in January, you’re already late.

Lesson 2 – Buyers now pay their own agent, and most of you still sound desperate

The NAR settlement changes went live on August 17, 2024, but the real bloodbath hit in 2025. Buyers who kept saying “I’ll work for free to earn your business” or “I’ll rebate part of my commission” got ghosted, blocked, and replaced by agents who acted like professionals.

My clients close 9 out of 10 buyer consultations because they walk in with a crisp 6-page buyer presentation packet that includes:

• Local 2025 market stats (days on market, absorption rate, price trends)
• Clear success fee menu (2.0–3.0% with bonuses for full-price/early close)
• 11 recent buyer testimonials with faces and dollar amounts saved
• Lender letter of pre-approval requirement explanation
• Signed buyer-agency agreement ready on page 6

No begging. No discounting. Just value. The newest 2026 version of this packet (updated for the latest compliance language) is inside the free Skool community I’ll link at the bottom.

Lesson 3 – Generic Reels and TikTok dances died in February (and nobody cried)

Instagram and TikTok both rolled out algorithm updates in January 2025 that rewarded watch time over everything else. The dancing pointer-sisters and “POV: your agent shows up late” Reels that got 100k views in 2023 were lucky to crack 400 views by March. (Real Estate Marketing Strategies)

The winners quietly pivoted to YouTube Shorts — same vertical phone video, but uploaded to YouTube instead of Meta. YouTube was still pushing new channels hard all year.

One of my Dallas students posted a 58-second “Just Listed” walk-through every single day from February 1st to November 30th. Zero paid ads. Result: 19 signed listings directly attributed to those Shorts, $412k GCI, and a channel with 28k subscribers. Same effort, 30× the ROI.

Lesson 4 – Zillow Flex worked in exactly 38 markets. Everywhere else, it was financial suicide

Zillow accidentally published internal Flex performance data in a Q3 shareholder deck (since deleted, but screenshots live forever). Top 38 markets averaged 72–85% net commission kept after referral fees and conversion costs. The other 312 markets averaged 38–46% kept (REALTRENDS).

Translation: agents in mid-size and rural markets were paying Zillow $20k–$40k in referral fees just to lose money on advertising, TC fees, and E&O spikes.

My 60-day rule for every coaching client: if you are not converting at least 1.8% of your Flex leads and keeping a minimum $18k net per 100 leads, turn it off tomorrow. Most of my students who killed Flex in Q1 replaced the volume inside 90 days with YouTube Shorts + sphere touches and kept 100% instead of 40%.

Lesson 5 – Your sphere forgot you exist (unless you sent these two things)

The average agent contacts their database 1.7 times per year and wonders why zero referrals show up.

My top 10 students contacted their 36–42 times in 2025, and 41% of their total closed volume came from past clients and sphere — in a year when most agents got zero.

The system is embarrassingly simple and low-tech:

1. Quarterly 6×9 full-color printed market-update postcard (costs ~$0.89 each in bulk)
2. Monthly “Pop-By” gift + handwritten thank-you card to their top 100 relationships

One agent in Denver spent $3,800 on printing and gifts all year and generated $1.31 M in sphere volume. 34× ROI. Works every single time when you actually do it.

Lesson 6 – Door-knocking quietly came back in every $800k+ market

While Reddit screamed “door knocking is dead,” luxury and upper-tier agents in Nashville, Denver, Austin suburbs, Scottsdale, North Jersey, and Westchester County started printing absurd numbers again — 3–6 listings per 100 doors.

Their secret? They stopped handing out cheap flyers and started handing out $9 professionally printed “Instant Market Report” booklets — 12 pages, full color, bound, with hyper-local stats and recent sales.

One student in Morristown, NJ, knocked on 380 doors from March–October with that booklet. Closed 23 listings, $11.4 M volume. Average days on market: 9. People want data, not a business card.

Lesson 7 – AI isn’t replacing agents… It’s replacing the lazy ones

2025 was the year the agents who called AI “soulless” started getting lapped by the ones treating it like a full-time assistant. 85% of agents using AI reported time savings, and 75% of top brokerages integrated AI tools (AllAboutAI).

My clients have an internal Notion vault with 150+ prompts they use daily:

• Listing descriptions that rank in the top 3 on Zillow within 48 hours
• Follow-up text sequences with 72% reply rates
• Price-reduction objection handlers that close 8/10 conversations
• YouTube script + thumbnail title generators
• Entire CMA packets built in <9 minutes

The agents using these prompts 5–10× per day made more in fewer hours. The ones still “writing everything themselves to keep it authentic” were handwriting offers at 10 p.m. while complaining on Facebook.

Lesson 8 – Cheap, crowded $5k–$10k group coaching officially died in 2025

Every guru who sold a $5k–$10k course with 800–2,000 members watched their Facebook groups turn into ghost towns and refund requests skyrocket. The only coaching that consistently moved the needle in 2025 was small-group (8–15 agents max) with daily Voxer access, weekly hot seats, and zero fluff (Andreas Dakos).

My own 2025 small groups averaged +34% GCI growth, 100% of members hit their income goal, and zero refunds. Large groups became echo chambers. Small groups became war rooms.

Lesson 9 – Burnout is now 100% optional – the “Rule of 3” proved it

Every agent in my 2026 cohort adopted some version of the Rule of 3 in 2025:

• Maximum 3 hours lead generation
• Maximum 3 appointments/showings
• Minimum 3 hours family/self/recharge

Everything else is delegated, automated, or deleted. 70% of agents experienced burnout symptoms, but structured routines cut risk by 34% (Elite Agent).

They worked fewer total hours than in 2023–2024 and made more money dramatically. Burnout vanished when the day became ruthless about priorities instead of reactive to notifications.

The Big Truth Heading Into 2026

2026 is setting up to be the largest transfer of wealth in American real estate in a decade. Baby boomers are finally listing en masse, rates are stable under 6%, and inventory is projected to almost double in many markets (Altogether, Redfin Research).

One group of agents already has listings under contract, buyer funnels humming, and January/February pipelines full.

The other group is still praying Zillow sends them a lead and that “exposure” pays the mortgage.

Your 2026 Unfair Advantage

(What My Small-Group Is Already Executing — Right Now in December)

While 90% of agents are checked out until January 6th, my 2026 small group is running:

• Rate-drop listing campaign mailed November 26th (full script + packet in the free playbook)
• 7-day database reactivation sequence that books January/February listings this month
• YouTube channel overhaul for the 2026 algorithm changes launching January 1
• Niche funnels for divorce, probate, relocation, and luxury lease-to-own are going live next week

Here’s the truth nobody wants to say out loud:

2026 will brutally separate the permanent 6-figure agents from the 7-figure agents who can’t turn the faucet off.

I’m not letting the people I care about start the best year in a decade unprepared.

Do this right now:

Join my Real Estate Skool community today and instantly unlock:

• The complete 2026 Playbook PDF (the exact 47-page playbook my $15k private clients use)
• Rate-Drop Listing Script + Pre-Listing Packet (responsible for 200+ extra listings this year)
• Daily live Q&A with me every weekday in December
• The database reactivation campaign that booked 41 listings for members this quarter alone

→ JOIN FREE SKOOL COMMUNITY + CLAIM YOUR EXCLUSIVE PERKS