Written by Discount Property Investor Team

There are two kinds of agents in the first week of January. The first kind spends it telling everyone the market is quiet. The second kind spends it sitting across kitchen tables from homeowners they booked weeks earlier. Same weather, same mortgage rates, same headlines. The only real difference is that one of them had a plan that started before the calendar flipped.If you are reading this on October 29, you are standing right at the fork. There are about two months left in the year, and that is plenty of time to build a January pipeline that doesn't depend on the market doing you any favors. It is not enough time if you spend November waiting for rates to drop and December waiting for the holidays to end.This post is written for agents, team leaders and brokers who are planning their 2027 production right now. I'm going to walk through what the latest data really says, why it points toward deeper conversations instead of louder marketing, and how to build a pipeline on four pillars. Then we'll set up a weekly operating rhythm and a 90-day scorecard you can print and put on your wall.

The agents who enter January with appointments already on the calendar don't need to "wait for the market." They've already made their own.

What the data actually says (and why it matters for your plan)

Let's start with the numbers, because they shape every decision that follows. I'm going to give you the headline figures from the past few weeks and then translate them into what they mean for how you spend your time.First, activity. Closed sales fell 5.4% year over year in September, and the combined August and September volume reached its lowest level in ten years. That is a mouthful, but the plain-English version is that fewer people are completing purchases than at almost any point in a decade. And the contract data points to more of the same. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index dropped 7.3% in September to a reading of 66.0, which is 11.3% below the same month last year. Pending sales fell in all four regions from August, with the West taking the biggest monthly hit at 9.2%.Other trackers are telling a similar story. Redfin reported that pending sales dropped to their lowest level since spring 2014, setting aside the brief pandemic shutdown, and every one of the 50 largest metro areas posted an annual decline. Zillow's preliminary data showed newly pending sales down 8.5% from a year earlier. When three different data sources agree, it's usually worth believing them.

The rate problem is still the rate problem

The reason is not mysterious. Borrowing costs climbed fast this fall. On October 1, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.28%, up from 6.34% a year earlier. Freddie Mac's survey released October 15 held the 30-year average at 7.40%. A week later, on October 22, it eased to 7.32%, which Freddie Mac's chief economist described as some relief for prospective buyers. That is a nice dip on paper, but a buyer shopping at 7.32% is still in a very different place than a buyer shopping at 6.34% twelve months ago.

Figure 1. Weekly Freddie Mac averages as reported in October 2026 coverage. Sources: Trading Economics (Sept. 24 and Oct. 1), The Mortgage Reports (Oct. 8 and Oct. 15), and Freddie Mac release (Oct. 22).

Look at the shape of that line. Rates ran up about a third of a point in three weeks and then barely budged. For a buyer, that's a monthly payment problem. For you, it's a planning problem, because it tells you not to build a January strategy on the idea that a rate drop will rescue your pipeline.

Why the lock-in effect changes who you should be talking to

Here is the part I think a lot of agents miss. You would expect rising inventory to be good news for buyers, and in some ways it is. Existing-home sales actually rose 1.5% in September to 3.99 million annualized, the first monthly gain since May, but they remain nearly 40% below the January 2021 peak. Inventory of homes for sale reached its highest level since November 2019. My read is that those homes are piling up because buyers are stepping back, not because owners are rushing to sell.That reading fits what the turnover numbers show. The U.S. housing turnover rate has fallen to just 3.8%, well under the 5.0% average logged between 2011 and 2019. And on the price side, Cotality says severe inventory shortages tied to sub-4% mortgage rate lock-ins are still propping up prices in places like Illinois and Connecticut. Cotality also expects annual appreciation of about 1.3% for 2026 and projects month-over-month price declines through the winter.Put all of that together and you get a market where a huge number of owners are sitting on cheap mortgages, solid equity and no strong reason to move. They aren't browsing Zillow on Sunday nights. They won't submit a website inquiry. They are not "active buyers" in any sense your CRM would recognize.And they're not standing still, either. Through the first three quarters of 2026, lenders authorized 1.1 million HELOCs worth $215 billion and originated 361,000 home equity loans totaling $28 billion. Plenty of owners are using their equity to stay put, renovate or consolidate debt. That tells you something important. These homeowners are thinking about money and about their houses. They just aren't thinking about moving yet, and nobody has asked them the right questions.That is the opening for a year-end plan. If demand is thin among active buyers, the agents who win in January will be the ones having deeper, earlier conversations with owners, past clients and referral partners. They'll be the person a homeowner calls when something in their life shifts, because that agent already knows what's going on.

Why the timing of your effort matters more than the market

There's one more piece of data I'd like you to carry into the rest of this post, and it isn't a market statistic at all. It's a coaching principle. Real estate coach Abe Safa argued on October 2 that the effort you put into the fourth quarter decides what shows up in the first quarter, and that fall is the start of next year, not the end of this one. He also recommends protecting a lead generation block from 8 to 11 on every workday through January.I agree with that framing completely, and I'd go one step further. In a slower market, the lag between effort and income gets longer. A conversation in November might not become a listing appointment until February, and that listing might not close until April. If you start your outreach in January, you are really building your pipeline for the second quarter, and you'll feel broke for months. If you start now, you are building for the first quarter.

Pillar 1: Past clients (your quietest gold mine)

If I could only give an agent one piece of advice for the next 60 days, it would be to call every past client you've worked with in the last five years. I know that sounds obvious. It is also the thing most agents say they'll do and then never do, because it feels awkward and there's always a showing or a closing to handle instead.Here's why it matters in this particular market. Your past clients bought at all kinds of rates. Some locked in sub-4% loans years ago, and for them, selling is a hard sell. Others bought in the last two years at higher rates and may be thinking about a refinance if rates ever dip. Almost all of them have more equity than they did when they closed, and many are quietly wondering what their home is worth and whether they should do something about it.

The year-end check-in

Skip the generic holiday card as your only touch. Instead, make a short, personal call or send a personal text that gives them a reason to respond. Something along the lines of: "Hey Maria, I'm putting together my year-end reviews for my clients and I'd love to do a quick equity and market update for your home. Do you have ten minutes this week or next?"Notice what that does. You aren't asking if they want to sell. You're offering something useful, which is information about the most expensive thing they own. That's an easy yes, and it keeps you out of the "are you thinking of moving?" trap that makes people defensive.

The equity review

An equity review is simply a one-page snapshot of what their home may be worth, what they probably owe, and how local prices have moved. Don't pretend it's an appraisal. Use it as the starting point for a conversation. Because owners are leaning on their equity so heavily right now, as the HELOC numbers above suggest, this is a conversation people are ready to have.Coaching tip: Keep a simple tracker with three columns: who you contacted, what you learned, and what the next step is. A coach worth hiring will ask to see that tracker in your very first session, because it shows how you actually spend your time.

Pillar 2: Likely sellers (find the people with a reason to move)

The second pillar is about identifying owners who might sell even in a rate-locked market, and then doing the quiet work of becoming their agent before anyone else does. I want to be careful here, because there's a wrong way to do this. Mass mailing "Sell now!" postcards to every address in your farm is not what I'm describing. In a market where most owners have little reason to move, that approach mostly wastes money.The better approach is to think in terms of triggers. Who has a reason to move despite the rate environment? Start by building a list from these categories:

• High-equity owners. People who have owned for ten years or more, have significant equity, and may be sitting in a home that no longer fits their life. They have the most flexibility to trade up or down.
• Life-event triggers. Marriages, divorces, new babies, empty nests, job relocations, retirements, inherited properties and aging parents are the classic ones. Life doesn't pause for interest rates.
• Trade-up candidates. Owners of starter homes who have outgrown them, even with a higher rate on the next mortgage. Some of them will decide the trade-off is worth it, especially if their current equity covers a large down payment.
• Landlords and accidental landlords. People who moved and kept their old home as a rental, and who may be reconsidering now that costs have risen.
• Owners of condos and townhomes. This segment is under particular pressure. Cotality reports that condo and townhome prices rose only 0.1% year over year, held back by rising HOA assessments and insurance costs. Some of these owners have a strong reason to talk about their options.

How to start the conversation without being pushy

You don't need to convince anyone to sell. You need to be the agent who has a clear, honest answer when they begin to wonder. That means offering something of real value, like a short neighborhood market update, a conversation about what their home might sell for in today's conditions, or an honest breakdown of what a move would cost them in monthly payment terms.Be honest about the reality, too. Cotality's forecast calls for national price growth of about 1.7% year over year by August 2027, so no one should expect a surge. A good likely-seller conversation includes the unglamorous truth that the best reason to sell is a life reason, not a market-timing reason. That honesty is what makes you the agent people call later.

Pillar 3: Renters and first-time buyers (the long game that pays off)

I'll be upfront about this one. Renters and first-time buyers are the slowest pillar to produce closings, and in a 7% rate environment, the timeline stretches further. Some agents write off this group completely right now. I think that's a mistake, for two reasons.First, these are people who haven't yet picked an agent. They are far less loyal to anyone than a seller with a longtime relationship. If you earn their trust now, you might be the person they call when their situation changes, and it will change. Second, the buyers who are in the market right now have unusual leverage. Redfin's October coverage describes buyers as gaining leverage as pending sales sink and sellers compete for a shrinking pool of buyers. A prepared first-time buyer can be a very good client in a market like this.

Teach payment planning, not just home tours

The most valuable thing you can offer a first-time buyer in this market is clarity. Most of them have seen a headline about 7% rates and quietly concluded that homeownership is out of reach. Some of them are right. Plenty aren't. The difference is a real budget conversation.Sit down with them, ideally with a lender partner, and walk through what a monthly payment really looks like at today's rates, with taxes and insurance included. Show them what changes if they put down a bit more, if they buy a smaller place, if they look in a different neighborhood, or if rates come down by half a point next year. The goal isn't to push them into a purchase. The goal is to replace fear with a plan.

Explain assistance options and realistic entry paths

Down payment assistance programs, first-time buyer loan products and local housing agency offerings vary widely by state and county. You don't need to be the expert on every program, but you should know who the expert is in your market and send people to them. A short list of three or four local lenders who work with first-time buyers is a genuinely helpful resource that most renters will never find on their own.

Pillar 4: Referral partners (the multiplier nobody schedules)

Referral partners are the people who talk to homeowners before you do. Lenders hear about it when a client wants to pull cash out or reduce payments. Attorneys handle estates, divorces and closings. Financial planners know when a family is reorganizing its money. Contractors walk through homes every week and hear what owners are frustrated about. Accountants and CPAs see the tax picture. Each of them sits on a stream of conversations you'd love to be part of.The problem is that most agents treat referral partners as an afterthought. They show up for a closing, send a thank-you note, and then disappear for six months. A simple, consistent Q4 touch plan fixes this, and it doesn't take much time.

A simple Q4 touch plan

Pick ten partners. Not fifty. Ten. Choose the people who already send you business, plus the ones you'd most like to work with. Then plan three touches over the next eight weeks:

1. A helpful market update. Send them a short, plain-English summary of what's happening in your local market and what you're seeing from buyers and sellers. Partners love this, because it helps them answer client questions.
2. A personal check-in. A call, coffee or lunch with a clear question: "What are you hearing from your clients right now, and how can I be more useful to them?"
3. A thank-you with a gift of value. Skip the generic gift basket. Send a note that mentions a specific client or moment you appreciated, or make an introduction that helps their business.

Give first, and be specific about what you want

The agents who get the most referrals are the ones who send the most referrals. If you've got a client who needs a lender, an attorney or a contractor, send them to your partners and tell your partners you did it. Reciprocity is how this works.

Your weekly operating rhythm: measure the activities that lead to closings

Now we get to the part that separates agents who have a plan from agents who have a good intention. The pillars tell you where to look. The weekly rhythm tells you what to do on Monday morning.Most agents track closings, and closings matter, but closings are a lagging number. By the time you see a bad month, the damage was done sixty or ninety days ago. In a slower market, where the lag is longer, tracking only closings is like driving by looking in the rearview mirror. The agents who stay ahead of the curve track four leading numbers every week:

1. Conversations. Real two-way talks with a past client, owner, renter or partner. A voicemail isn't a conversation. A mass text isn't either.
2. Consultations offered. The number of times you proposed a specific next step, such as an equity review, a buyer strategy session or a listing consultation.
3. Appointments set. Meetings that are actually on the calendar, with a date and a time.
4. Appointments held. Meetings that happened. The gap between "set" and "held" tells you whether you're qualifying well and confirming properly.

A sample week

Here's a simple structure to steal. It follows the same idea Abe Safa recommends when he tells agents to protect a morning lead generation block from 8 to 11 each workday through January, but I've added a little shape to it:

• Monday: Plan the week and review last week's numbers (30 minutes). Then make calls to past clients and likely sellers.
• Tuesday: Calls and personal notes. Focus on equity reviews and year-end check-ins. Confirm all appointments for the week.
• Wednesday: Referral partner day. Coffee, lunch or calls with two or three partners. Send a market update.
• Thursday: Renters and first-time buyers. Follow up with leads, host an education session, or connect people with lenders.
• Friday: Appointments and consultations, plus a ten-minute review of what worked and what didn't. Set up next week's calendar before you leave.

Your 90-day scorecard: define January before it arrives

A plan without numbers is a wish. So let's build a scorecard. The one below is a sample for a solo agent who is willing to treat lead generation as a daily habit. It is illustrative and not a promise, and you should adjust it to your market, your average price point and your own conversion rates. If you work on a team or lead one, scale it to fit your team members.

How to use the scorecard

Print it. Fill in the actuals every Friday. Then look for the weakest link, and spend the next week fixing only that one thing. If your conversations are strong but appointments are low, work on how you ask for the meeting. If you're setting appointments but holding few, tighten your confirmation process. If you're holding appointments but few turn into agreements, record your presentation and review it, or ask your coach to role-play with you.

Your next 48 hours

I don't want this to turn into one more article you bookmark and forget, so let's finish with a short list of actions. Do these before the end of the week:

1. Block 8 to 11 on your calendar for every workday through January, and label it lead generation.
2. Pull your list of past clients from the last five years and choose your first twenty calls.
3. Choose ten referral partners and schedule the first touch with each.
4. Print the scorecard, fill in your January targets, and share them with one person.
5. Draft a short script for your year-end equity check-in so you're not improvising on call one.

The bottom line

The housing market is not going to hand anyone an easy year-end. Sales are slow, contract activity is down across the country, rates are stubbornly high and many owners have no reason to list. All of that is real, and you should plan around it.But a slow market also thins out the competition. The agents who rely on website leads and a hot market will struggle, while the ones who build relationships, ask good questions and track the right numbers will quietly fill their calendars. The people in the first group will spend January wishing for a better market. The people in the second group will spend January running appointments.You get to pick which group you're in, and you get to pick it this week. Start with the calls. Protect the morning block. Track the leading numbers. Everything else in this post is just scaffolding around those three habits.The agents who enter January with appointments already booked won't need to wait for the market. Be one of them.